US Demands 15% Cut of Nvidia and AMD AI Chip Sales

What happened

The Trump administration has reportedly required Nvidia and AMD to pay a 15% commission on AI GPU sales to China as part of export approvals, according to The New York Times and The Financial Times. The move followed a period of tightened export controls and comes after both companies received licenses to ship modified, lower-capability chips such as Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308.

Reports say Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang struck the arrangement with President Trump days before the Commerce Department issued the licenses. The New York Times estimates the levy could net roughly $2 billion a year for the U.S. government.

Why this is unusual

Experts call the arrangement "highly unusual." It's not typical for a government to take a fixed revenue cut tied to private sales as a condition of export approval. The deal sits alongside a string of unconventional interventions from this administration — from proposed joint ventures for social apps to threats of sweeping tariffs aimed at reshaping chip manufacturing.

Key implications

• Chipmakers: immediate revenue and pricing pressure; contract renegotiations likely.
• Supply chains: incentives to reshore manufacturing or localize production to avoid future levies or tariffs.
• Customers in China: potential distrust after reports of hardware backdoors and pricing shifts; buyers may look to domestic alternatives.
• Policy signal: sets a precedent where export approvals can carry direct fiscal conditions, blurring trade policy and revenue generation.

What companies should consider now

• Run revenue-impact scenarios that include levies, tariffs, and changed demand in China.
• Audit products and supply chains for compliance and national-security scrutiny.
• Prepare communications for customers and regulators to manage trust and explain technical mitigations.

This is also a reminder that geopolitical risk can move faster than corporate planning cycles. A single policy shift can alter contracts, margins, and supplier choices almost overnight.

Bottom line

The reported 15% cut on AI chip sales to China reframes export licenses from a compliance checkpoint into a potential revenue lever for governments. For companies, the immediate task is pragmatic: quantify the impact, shore up compliance and supply-chain options, and communicate clearly with customers. For policymakers and market watchers, this move raises questions about how trade tools will be used in the accelerating competition over AI capability.

QuarkyByte’s approach is to combine scenario modeling, policy analysis, and supply-chain mapping to turn headline risks into actionable roadmaps. Companies and agencies navigating these changes need both technical audits and economic simulations to decide where to invest, what contracts to revise, and how to keep strategic projects on track.