Nvidia Cuts China From Revenue Forecast Amid Export Controls

Nvidia Skips China in Guidance Due to Export Controls

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced that the company will exclude revenue from China in its forecasts, signaling a firm stance on U.S. chip export controls. He emphasized that any reversal of these restrictions would be a “bonus” rather than an expected outcome.

Impact of US Export Restrictions

In April, the U.S. government introduced licensing requirements for Nvidia’s H20 AI chips sold to China. During its first-quarter earnings call, Nvidia warned that these controls would shave off roughly $8 billion in revenue in the second quarter alone. The move reflects growing geopolitical tension and tighter semiconductor regulations.

Broader Industry Implications

Nvidia’s decision highlights a shift in how tech giants manage market forecasts amid policy uncertainty. By removing China from its guidance, the company sets a more conservative baseline and shields stakeholders from sudden revenue swings caused by trade policy changes.

• Revenue forecasts more conservative under uncertain trade policies.
• Increased need for scenario planning across the semiconductor supply chain.
• Market volatility as policy shifts create unpredictable demand flows.

Navigating Regulatory Headwinds

For tech leaders, the lesson is clear: integrate regulatory scenarios into forecasting models. By stress-testing revenue projections against possible export ban extensions or relaxations, companies can maintain agility and investor confidence even when policies evolve rapidly.

QuarkyByte’s analytical toolkit offers semiconductor firms data-driven scenario simulations and market intelligence to quantify policy risks. Our AI-powered insights help organizations anticipate regulatory shifts, model revenue impacts, and craft strategic responses—ensuring resilience in a complex global landscape.